Saturday night fever is rife as betting on reality TV shows has become the latest money making craze. Has self-confessed degenerate gambler James Donaghy got the X factor?

The seemingly never-ending git circuit that is reality TV is driven by viewer demand. Like all junkies, reality TV addicts keep searching for the next new high and TV is only too happy to provide it. One might bump up the cruelty (Space Cadets), throw in a celebrity sex pest (Love Island), or even lock people in a bunker to fight over a mountain of cash (Unanimous). But increasing numbers of reality TV fans are turning towards betting on the outcome of their favourite shows as a means of maintaining that narcotic high. After all, if you're going to lose your entire summer to Big Brother each year you may as well make some cash doing it.

Having been a degenerate gambler for as long as I can remember, as well as a huge fan of reality TV, it's natural that this should interest me. Knowing my proclivities, I'm given £50 to wager on reality TV for The Guide betting project. The suckers. I've watched with interest as Big Brother internet forums have gone from indifference towards betting to wild-eyed excitement. It's a given that bookmakers, like all good dope dealers, make their money on the comeback and the more invested a junkie is emotionally the more likely they are to return - again and again. And the advent of peer-to-peer betting exchanges like Betfair (where you bet against other punters rather than a bookmaker) allow you to bet against a particular outcome occurring as well as for it. This addition gives the punter much greater choice and will form a large part of my betting strategy.
I turn to professional gambler Ed Murray for guidance. He has spent the past few years earning frankly obscene amounts on the frontlines of reality TV betting. A combination of statistical analysis of internet polls, closely following the line the producers were taking and bold staking allowed Murray to go from enthusiastic amateur to full-time guru.

"I was basically using my knowledge as a journalist from my time at Sky Sports and Sky News," he says "I understood the drive for ratings and which way they would want to steer shows. I won £19,000 betting every week that Chico would stay even if he was bottom two in X Factor. Cowell would never get rid of him. Publicity-wise he was dynamite - on the front cover of the tabloids every day."

Ed learned the reality TV betting ropes punting on Big Brother and his obsession with the show saw him fork out £700 for a golden ticket giving him the chance to appear in this summer's event, losing out to the godawful, dreary Suzie. "It's my personal dream to appear on Big Brother as a contestant," he says. "That's the only thing that could beat betting on it."

While such fevered interest continues, bookmakers look at betting on reality TV as a gateway drug - an apparently harmless class C option they hope will lead to a lifetime gambling habit. Mike Cooksedge, the man behind p2pBetting.com, explains: "Bookmakers see reality TV betting as a way of introducing their service to a new userbase". Mike specialises in reality TV betting and has found it a consistently profitable avenue. "The relaxation of attitudes to gambling has encouraged people to have a bet who in the past would not have considered it, and many of them are more interested in reality TV than sport".

Like many betters in the sector Mike respects The Curse Of The Black Woman - a powerful betting community legend based on the observation that non-whites and women generally do poorly in these shows. "Brenda Edwards from last year's X Factor proves the curse," he insists. "Great performer, and we saw her develop before our eyes in a classic reality TV journey. But after one slightly poor performance the public dumped her at the final four stage." Spooky.

As we chat, the X Factor voting results are announced. Eton Road, the four white scouse lads who last sang in tune in 2001 are joined in the bottom two by Robert, the soulful black Essex boy with the big voice and big heart. Robert puts in a storming performance and clearly deserves to stay. Can a brother get an amen? Um, no he can't. Simon Cowell wusses out and picks the Eton Road boys, leaving Robert to join the ever-growing list of talented but doomed black artists to leave the show before their time.

That's just one of the quirks of betting on TV you have to watch out for. "A lot of newbie punters don't understand the difference between a negative vote and a positive vote," Mike notes. "With Big Brother you vote who gets the boot and extreme characters are most at risk, whereas with a positive vote like I'm A Celebrity..., where you vote to save people, extreme characters tend to survive at the expense of the bland ones." Which means you wouldn't see godawful dreary Suzie surviving long in the jungle then? Result!

With interactivity being the defining buzzword of reality television there can't be many better ways to engage with this sprawling cultural text than placing cash on the outcome. And if you think you feel bad after your favourite gets evicted by 0.5% of the vote just think how much worse you'll feel when you lose a month's salary on it.

But then isn't that feeling of misery, worthlessness and self-loathing why we all watch in the first place?

· The X Factor, Sat, 6.30pm, ITV1

The Guide gambling project

It's all about interactivity, so we gave James Donaghy £50 to bet with. Show us the money...

4/11/2006

It's Saturday and Simon Cowell is putting a smackdown on the MacDonald Brothers on X Factor yet again. The twin-pronged blandathon have survived all his verbal maulings so far and I fancy this trend to continue. I lay the MacDonald Brothers at 6/5 risking £12 to make £10. Come results time it's smart-arse Ashley who gets the chop so The MacDonalds are safe and the bet comes in. I have made money from thin air. I rock!

Running profit: £10

11/11/2006

It's lay the MacDonalds time again. 13/8 is the price this week which means me risking £16 to make £10. It works - they don't even make the bottom two. I'm the proudest Scotsman you ever met and I'm not even Scottish.

Running profit: £20

18/11/2006

I don't want to tempt fate with my MacDonalds laying again so I back my hunch that the British public are sick of the Eddie-Munster-meets-Harry-Connick-Jr freak show Ray. He's at 4/5 so I'm risking £12.50 to make a tenner. I also bung a couple of quid on the piss poor Eton Road at 4-1 as a speculative bet. Remarkably, Ray avoids the bottom two but Eton Road face off against Robert. Cracka-ass cracker Simon Cowell plays it safe and I am left nursing a painful double loss. I feel determined to make up for it. Shit, that means I'm hooked!

Running profit: £5

25/11/2006

I figure I've learned my lesson and decide to lay the Eddie Munster boy at evens. The Gods look down kindly on me with Eddie putting in his best performance of the series. He marches proudly on and I've finished £15 ahead. That's over 28% yield which is going to some kind of charity apparently. I can't begin to tell you how wrong that is.

Final profit: £15

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